How My Predictions Are Faring |
Overview
(October 1, 2010) In this essay I review the accuracy of my
predictions going back a quarter of a century. Included herein is a discussion
of my predictions from The Age of Intelligent Machines (which I wrote in the
1980s), all 147 predictions for 2009 in The Age of Spiritual Machines (which I
wrote in the 1990s), plus others.
Perhaps my most important
predictions are implicit in my exponential graphs. These trajectories have
indeed continued on course and I discuss these updated graphs below.
My core thesis, which I call the
law of accelerating returns, is that fundamental measures of information
technology follow predictable and exponential trajectories, belying the
conventional wisdom that you can’t predict the future.
There are still many things —
which project, company or technical standard will prevail in the marketplace,
or when peace will come to the Middle East — that remain unpredictable, but the
underlying price/performance and capacity of information is nonetheless
remarkably predictable. Surprisingly, these trends are unperturbed by conditions
such as war or peace and prosperity or recession.
