A comparison of solar flare forecasting systems has turned
the performance table of apparently effective prediction methods on its
head. Researchers at Trinity College
Dublin, Ireland, have tested the reliability of seven techniques against their
record of predicting flares and non-flare events correctly, as well as their
history of missed flares and false alarms.
When the predictions were put into context of the Sun’s activity levels
over time, some of the most seemingly successful techniques slid down the
table. Dr D. Shaun Bloomfield is
presenting the findings at the RAS National Astronomy Meeting in St. Andrews,
Scotland.