Governments take into account the macroeconomic predictions
made by economists when they make important decisions that affect all of us.
For this reason, experts strive to find new ways of fine tuning their
previsions in an attempt to produce the minimum possible number of deviations
in them.
There are different methods that aid in predicting what will
happen in the future. Nevertheless, these predictions do not usually take into
account uncertainty, that is, “the lack of knowledge we have about what is
going to happen, and which we cannot predict with the information that is
available when we are making the prediction,” explains one of the authors of
the study, Esther Ruiz, a tenured professor in UC3M’s Statistics Department. In
practice, predictions to not have to be exact, and “intoducing uncertainty makes
it possible to make more realistic forecasts,” she adds.