Abstract
(June 10, 2015) Estimates made by the Environmental Protection Agency of the
likely employment effects of a proposed rule (the Clean Power Plan or CPP)
mandating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants are
likely incomplete. These estimates undercount both positive and negative
influences on employment. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the
channels through which the mandated emission reductions may lead to employment
changes, both positive and negative. It finds that the CPP is likely to lead to
a net increase in of roughly 360,000 jobs in 2020, but that the net job
creation falls relatively rapidly thereafter, with net employment gains of
roughly 15,000 jobs in 2030. This paper also provides comparisons of the
composition of employment in job-gaining versus job-losing industries. While
workers in job-losing industries are less likely to have four-year college
degrees, jobs in these industries are far less likely to be low-wage than in the
overall economy, or in job-gaining industries. Workers in job-losing industries
are also substantially more likely to be represented by a union. The
characteristics of employment in job-losing industries, as well as the likely
geographic concentration of gross job losses in poorer states, is likely to
lead to transition challenges for workers and communities in responding to the
CPP. This suggests the potential for a key role for federal assistance and
complementary policies to aid these groups.